WEEK 8 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS & PREVIEW
- sidelinebeef
- Oct 18, 2024
- 9 min read
We're back for another beautiful Saturday. After last week, we're 20-16-2 (+6.03 units) on the season. We cashed a nice parlay last week and we're going to continue to push through giving you the best picks on these big games. If you just want the playbook click here.
Please gamble responsibly and bet within your means.
It’s the 3rd Saturday in October and the #7 ranked Crimson Tide are heading to Neyland stadium to face off against #11 Tennessee. Mid-season SEC conference play is starting to feel like its own mini playoff. Both teams enter this match up 5-1 with both team’s losses coming in conference. Bama is a 3 point favorite here and I’m having trouble picking a side.
While Milroe and company have looked improved all season they had a poor showing against a feisty SC defense just one week after suffering a historic loss to Vandy. Even though Bama escaped 27-25 against SC, they were out gained 418 to 344 yards. The OL hasn’t been as top notch as we expected but Milroe is certainly seeing the field a bit better and picking up big chunks every time he runs. This team is still lacking discipline and hurting itself in crucial spots with stupid penalties. Bama is going to need to clean up these costly mistakes and tighten up on defense.
Meanwhile Tennessee lost to Arkansas last week and needed to right the ship against the Gators. They also played a tight one pulling it out 23-17 in OT. Nico’s age is really starting to show in conference play and we can’t trust he’s the guy we saw against G5 competition. However, Josh Heupel is a fantastic offensive mind and I’m sure has been scheming up something for Bama’s defense that’s shown vulnerability lately. Tennessee needs to rely on Dylan Sampson; he's far and away the best player on the team. If they can establish a run game against Alabama, it could cause problems.
To sum it all up, the big question here is who has the edge? While Tennessee’s defense ranks extremely well, the toughest offensive opponent they’ve faced is Arkansas and they lost. Bama’s offense even in the loss to Vandy has proven they’re explosive and can score in a flash. I’d be more worried about Bama’s OL if Milroe wasn’t such a great runner, so I believe he neutralizes that Tenn pass rush a bit. I don’t think Tennessee’s defense will be able to fully contain Bama. I also believe if the Vols are playing a game of catch up, they won’t be able to do it against this Bama defense. While Bama has looked a bit vulnerable in the run game, I think they’ll key in on Sampson due to Nico’s lack of good play lately. This one should be tight to start but Bama will pull away and cover the 3.
ALABAMA -3 (-112)
This might be the matchup we didn’t know we needed this weekend. Say what you want about Michigan but their ability to win games and remain ranked with literally no QB is impressive. It’s on the back of a strong defense, even though it’s regressed from last year and a pounding run game. On the other side, Bret Bielema and the Fighting Illini are heading into this matchup ranked AHEAD of Michigan! The Wolverines are a 3.5 pt favorite heading into Illinois, so how does this one play out?
Michigan is off a much needed bye week. Tuttle made a surprising appearance against Washington two weeks ago after a long off season of recovering from injury. Now that he’s back and had some actual reps in practice, I do expect the Wolverine offense to significantly improve. Now I'm not saying BOOM it’s fixed ready to go. But I’m sure they’ll be able to open up the playbook a lot. It does come at an odd time in the schedule though. After watching what Purdue did to Illinois last week, how could Michigan not decide to run the ball a million times? And who better at QB to do it than Orji? Purdue rushed for 239 against Illinois last week with 2 players including backup QB Ryan Browne eclipsing 100 rush yards. This will be interesting to keep an eye on as we know Michigan can use Orji as a weapon in the run game and I doubt they’ll really care if Illinois knows it’s coming.
While Illinois rush defense is vulnerable, their pass defense rankings are middle of the road but much better. Although they shouldn’t have to worry much about Michigan passing…unless this whole Tuttle thing I mentioned 2 seconds ago comes true after some added days of practice for the 25 yr old QB. Illinois will have its hands full trying to move the ball on the Michigan defense, but we’ve seen previous teams scheme around Will Johnson and be successful. Michigan’s pass defense ranks much worse than last year and will be vulnerable against guys like Zakhari Franklin.
We’re going to roll with Illinois and the points here. Illinois of course plays much better at home but this game is special. Their AD specifically requested putting Michigan on the schedule for this week to close out the 100 year anniversary of Memorial Stadium. 100 years ago Illinois hosted Michigan in Champaign for the first game at Memorial Stadium and won 39-14 thanks to Red Grange’s superstar performance. Illinois is FIRED UP for this one and would love to come full circle beating a ranked Michigan team in Memorial Stadium for the 100th year anniversary. Also if that’s not enough for you this Michigan team is 1-5 ATS this year!! I can’t trust them to lay 3.5 on the road. Meanwhile the Fighting Illini are 4-1-1 ATS. I’ve thought long and hard about the ML here but I’ll stick with the points.
ILLINOIS +4 (-110)
#8 LSU @ Arkansas
After an overtime win against Ole Miss in a game in which they didn’t have the lead until the winning TD, LSU will now head to Arkansas. CFB schedulers deserve some credit because they really cooked this year. What a let down spot for LSU against a spunky Arkansas team that beat Tennessee two weeks ago before heading into a bye.
This matchup comes down to 2 things for me. 1. Is Taylen Green truly healthy? He left Tennessee injured but this week was reported to be healthy enough to play. From all the reports I’ve read, he’s not 100% but he’ll be good enough to play. That could be a huge problem especially against this LSU defense that ranks #4 in the country in sack percentage. Arkansas’ OL hasn’t been great at protecting Green either as they rank #94 in sack percentage allowed. If LSU could get to Green and possibly even take him out of the game Arkansas will have some major issues. I know a lot of people are licking their lips at this one saying how could you not take Arkansas but this team is still good at shooting itself in the foot especially in big spots.
On the other side, Arkansas’ defense is going to struggle against this LSU offense. The LSU OL is going to hold them in check and Nussmeier just proved against a really good defense in Ole Miss, he can dice up anyone. I know it’s definitely a let down spot but LSU can’t afford to slip up when they have A&M next week followed by Bama and Florida after a bye. That first loss against USC this year was just a Brian Kelly special. As long as LSU can keep games close, they like their chances…as do I. I think LSU comes out and lights up the scoreboard here against the hogs. I wouldn’t be surprised if Taylen Green puts up some points as well. Let’s take LSU -2.5 and OVER 56.5
LSU -2.5 (-115)
OVER 56.5 (-112)
If this game is anything like Alabama Georgia was then it will deliver. These SEC teams have been fighting to the death! Georgia heads into Austin as a 5 point DAWG. If you told anyone in the pre season, hey in Week 8 you’re going to get a chance to bet Kirby Smart’s UGA as a 5 point underdog, well no one would believe you, but they’d all take the bet. Now here we are in Week 8 and it’s just not that easy.
Georgia’s back may be inching against the wall here, which is dangerous. Look at the big picture here. UGA is 5-1 with a conference loss to Bama, they’re going to Texas before a bye, but Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee all remain on the schedule. Georgia can’t afford anymore than 2 losses on the season if they want a bid for the playoff. Kirby and crew know that so they’re going to give this one their all. Outside of a 1st half against Bama and 2nd half against Miss St, the Georgia defense has been rock solid. They’ll need to tighten up for a full 60 if they want a shot at Texas. As for the offense, Beck and company are good. Even though they had a rough start against Bama, they scored 26 points in the second half and seriously threatened Bama’s lead in the 4th qtr. They will need to pick up the ground game though as they’ve struggled a bit to be dominant there.
Texas is the complete team, or so everyone says. They rank in the top of the country in most categories on offense and defense. But who have they played? Texas’ defense has faced Colorado St, Michigan with Davis Warren at QB, UTSA, UL Monroe, Miss State who’s the worst in the SEC, and Oklahoma who has a freshman QB and sputtering offense. So the Longhorns defensive units haven’t truly been tested by someone of Beck’s caliber. That’ll be interesting to keep an eye on. I will say though, I’m so high on this Texas offense and Quinn Ewers. Ewers may not put up gaudy stats but if you watch him play he’s absolutely smooth. He’s the real deal completing 72% of his passes with 9 TDs and 3 INTs in 4 games he’s played. Now like we said, who did they play? But both Michigan and Oklahoma are very good on defense so it’s not the same case.
It’s REALLY tough for me to pick a side here. Texas laying 5 feels like a trap. Feels like they want you to take Georgia. Then I see -5 and say no way it’s just too big of a spread, they must really just think this one's Texas. So we’re not going to pick a side here. We’re going to take the OVER. These big games have been fun and offense has been way too high powered for games like this to go under. So let’s root for points and take OVER 56.5.
UGA @ TEX OVER 56.5 (-112)
Other Bets
Nebraska @ #16 Indiana
I have been back and forth on this one a thousand times. We’re high on both teams, I gave out both win total overs (Indiana you’re welcome.) and I’m having a tough time deciding here. Kurt Cignetti is an awesome coach and he’s taken Bloomington by storm. They’re also coming off a bye week which means they’ve prepared for Nebraska for 2 weeks now. But let’s not forget that this will be the first serious team Indiana is facing. Nebraska’s defense is for real and even leads the BIG10 in sacks…but Indiana is right behind them with only 1 less sack on the season. Raiola has been awesome for the Huskers and they’ll face a tough Hoosier defense. This should be a great game and is very evenly matched.
Because I think both teams will rely on strong defense, this one should be close. I think the number 6.5 is just too much and I can’t trust Indiana to just cover that against this revived Nebraska team. I’ll take Nebraska with the points just to be safe. But just a tip here for you…DON’T SCROLL BY YOU’RE GOING TO WANT TO READ THIS. 80% of the bets are on Indiana ML…but 65% of the handle is on Nebraska ML. The sharps are high on Nebraska.
NEBRASKA +6.5 (-108)
#6 Miami @ Louisville
In recent weeks Miami has been a scare. They played a tight one with VA Tech and then almost dropped the ball against Cal. Even though some of the problems are caused by him, Cam Ward is a superhero that leads his team to victory at any cost. Louisville’s defense hasn’t looked so great as of late but they definitely have the potential to upset Miami here. Especially with HC Jeff Brohm who led the Purdue Spoilermakers to some top 5 victories before taking this job. Louisville’s offense can score, they average 31 ppg, meanwhile Miami averages 46. Both defenses have lacked consistency and I think if Miami is on upset alert, it’s going to be a shoot out just like VA Tech and Cal. Louisville has a better offense than both of these teams so I think this will be a high scoring affair. Book it, OVER 60.
MIAMI @ LOUISVILLE OVER 60 (-110)
ALL BETS
SPECIAL PARLAY
Wisconsin ML, USF ML, WVU ML, Texas State ML (+342)
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