Week 12 College Football Picks & Preview
- sidelinebeef
- Nov 16, 2024
- 7 min read
So last week we completely reversed course and couldn’t pick a game. I’m not even going to say “well if this went that way.. Or they did this…” I’m just going to take that on the chin and keep moving. We turned it around and dug deep this week to make sure we’re on point. On the season we’re still up 10 units and winning over 50% and we're only going to get better. If you just want the playbook click here.
BIG GAME BREAKDOWNS
#5 Texas @ Arkansas
This can go one of two ways. Texas continues their path to playoff form and steam rolls over Arkansas or Arkansas exposes Texas for benefitting from preseason rankings propping up their strength of schedule. While Arkansas has been the fun underdog we like to take all season, they’re just not at the level to compete yet. People have started to peek behind the curtains and realize Texas’s schedule is not as tough as they made it out to be in pre season. That win over Michigan did not age as well as people expected. But I still believe especially after last week, this Longhorns team is entering their postseason form and Arkansas simply isn’t talented enough to keep up.
Arkansas made some waves early in the season but their recent performances haven’t been great. After upsetting a very inconsistent Tennessee team, they lost 34-10 to LSU, beat a REALLY BAD Miss State team, and got blown out by Ole Miss. I know they had 31 points against Ole Miss but the game was over at half so those garbage time scores don’t mean much. Arkansas’ defense has struggled to produce sacks and they get shredded in the pass game allowing 283.9 pass yards per game (#129 in the country).
The Longhorns on the other hand are extremely efficient as passing the ball and treat it as an extension of their run game. Texas ranks #8 in completion percentage, #12 in yards per pass, and #9 in pass yards per game. I have a hard time seeing this Longhorns team, who’s now battle tested after Georgia, slip up here. Lay the points with the Longhorns.
TEXAS -12.5 (-110)
The ACC just feels like background noise now that Miami slipped up but Clemson still has a path to the ACC. In order to get there, they need Miami to drop another one. Clemson lost 33-21 to Louisville two weeks ago and just escaped dropping one to VA Tech after being shutout in the 1st half. Meanwhile Pitt’s undefeated season came to an end after they dropped 2 in a row to SMU and then UVA.
Neither team has had an impressive win and both have just beaten up on the bottom of the ACC for the most part. Both teams have proven they can struggle stopping the run, so whichever team stays ahead of the chains on Saturday will most likely win this one. It’s not the most exciting game but it is a ranked matchup in a quiet week and should be a decent watch. The line is too tight and both teams are too unpredictable for me to give a pick here. If I had to lean one way, I’d lean under but I’m not giving out a play for this one.
Utah @ #20 Colorado
I can’t believe they’re not getting any attention but this Buffs team controls it’s own destiny. Colorado has the chance to make a playoff as long as they win out through the conference championship. They’ve really started to come together and across the board have improved. Meanwhile this Utah team is limping into the end of the season needing to win 2 out of the final 3 to make a bowl game. Utah is suffering from the injury bug bad. They lost another QB last week as well as their playmaking TE Kuithe. They’ll be turning to Isaac Wilson, younger brother of Zach Wilson, who was benched for poor play earlier in the year. Wilson threw 8 INTs in 7 games and is just a freshman.
I know Utah played that undefeated BYU team tough last week, but the holy war means something completely different. This Utah team is beaten and bruised and is having to take a trip to Boulder at time where the Buffs need to win out for a conference championship berth. It’s not setting up well for the Utes. Utah however does still play good defense, their biggest issue is their offense can’t stay on the field very long. So I don’t expect this one to be a boat race from the Buffs, in fact I like the under and Colorado here.
Like I said Utah will play good defense but won’t be able to score. They’ll keep it tight in the first half and eventually Colorado will breakthrough, but there won’t be enough time or even a need to pour it on. Colorado is 3-1 ATS at home this year and has covered in 7 of 9 games this year. They also control their own destiny and their path is clear. I think I”m starting to BELIEVE. And if you don’t BELIEVE just yet, know that according DraftKings, while only 15% of the bets are on the under, it holds 52% of the handle.
COLORADO -11 (-108)
UTAH/CU UNDER 45 (-112)
#24 Missouri @ South Carolina
I do not have a play in this game and I won’t be doing a deep dive either. I simply want to say Mizzou doesn’t deserve to be ranked. They are FRAUDS of the highest degree and Eli Drinkwitz is a fool. South Carolina has proven they’re for real and they can play Beamer ball at home. I know most of America is just rooting for South Carolina to stomp out the flame that is Missouri and extinguish them from the top 25, PLEASE.
Now I was DEAD WRONG on Georgia last week. But it was a gut check and I think I was a week early. They weren’t in full desperation mode yet but now they truly can’t lose again. But that doesn’t mean we’re going to blindly take Georgia this week. There’s some serious issues there this year that can’t be solved by flipping a switch.
Carson Beck has not been great. In his last 6 games he has a 10/12 TD/INT ratio and Georgia suffered 2 losses. Tennessee defense is not the team to make mistakes against. They’re #3 in the country on 3rd down stops hold teams to an average of 13.8 ppg. That’s going to be a tough assignment for Beck who just hasn’t been what we expected this year. On the other side, Nico has been questionable but I’m hearing he’s most likely going to play. Both teams are suffering some injuries but neither can afford to slip up here. Let’s be honest, that Tennessee offense hasn’t been all that great this year either. While they do rack up yards, they don’t score as much as you’d expect, ranking #120 in RZ scoring %. If they want to beat what is still a top 15 defense in Georgia, they’re going to need to be efficient especially because the games in Athens.
I haven’t had much luck picking a side in Georgia games this year and both teams have been really bad ATS. But one thing I’m pretty certain of, this game won’t turn into a shootout. I like the under here. Like I said, two great defenses and two struggling offenses. The under is 6-3 in UGA games this year, I’ll take it.
TENN/UGA UNDER 47 (-112)
OTHER PLAYS
Nebraska @ USC
I’m a bit upset with myself for not locking this line in earlier. I saw it at 9 and now it’s down to 7. Nebraska hit a 3 game losing skid against IU, OSU, and UCLA but they made a big OC change. After firing their OC they brought in outside help from Dana Holgersen who is sure to help Raiola and this offense pick things up a bit. USC is broken and down. Miller Moss is not the guy and Lincoln Riley is turning to former UNLV QB Jayden Maiava. Maiava was awesome last year but tends to give the ball away a bit. That could be a real issue against this Nebraska defense. I think both offenses put up some points here and I LOVED the Huskers at 9 but I’ll keep them on the card at 7.
NEBRASKA +7 (-105)
NEB/USC OVER 51.5 (-105)
Kansas @ BYU
Hear me out on this one. BYU is an absolute statistic outlier. They have been crushing the sharps, the bookmakers, everyone, all season long. If you try to deep dive this team and get with analytics they’re going to surprise you. The biggest factor here is being in Provo at night. If you thought this BYJew team was magic already, wait until you see the type of stuff that goes down in Provo at night. Since 2021 BYU is 13-3 straight up as home favorites. The numbers within 3 so I like it. This Kansas team is also wildly inconsistent like we predicted in the off season. The loss of their OC made them take half their season to figure out their offense, but they’re improved tremendously from where they were in September. They’ve come on strong the last few weeks, defeating Houston, conference contender Iowa State, and coming down to the wire with K-State. I’m just not sure how consistent this Kansas team is and it’s tough to trust them in Provo at night. Another side and total here we’re going to lay it with BYU and over 56.5
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