Week 11 College Football Picks & Preview
- sidelinebeef
- Nov 8, 2024
- 6 min read
We are UP! If you're not tailing, I don't know what you're doing but you missed a 7-1 week last week. On the season we are hitting at 56.7% and up +13.19 units. Like I said last week we're going to pick it up for the back half so let's go. If you just want the playbook click here.
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BIG GAME BREAKDOWNS
While this isn’t a playoff game, it is an elimination game for one team. Ole Miss can not afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoff. Sitting at #16, one spot behind LSU, this Rebs team will need to finish 10-2 if they want in on the postseason. Georgia on the other hand can afford a loss but it will make their path to the conference championship very difficult. So how does this one play out?
Ole Miss routed Arkansas last week 63-31 in a dominant fashion. We gave out the under but that was not the same Ole Miss team we’ve been seeing all year long. Without Tre Harris, Jaxson Dart went 25/31 with 507 yards and 6 TDs! The Rebs offense was explosive through the air and didn’t need to rely much on their ground game with Parrish. While that was an awesome performance from Kiffin and Dart’s offense, I doubt they’ll be able to do the same thing against Georgia. We’ve seen both Ole Miss and Georgia struggle on the offensive side of the ball, this one is going to come down to defense.
I’ve been saying all year this Ole Miss team is anchored by their defense, specifically the DL. That’s because they’re #3 in opp rush yards per game, #1 in opp yards per rush, #2 in sack percentage and #9 in 3rd down conversion percentage on defense. But what offenses have they played? South Carolina had a banged up LaNorris Sellers, LSU can’t run, Arkansas got yards in garbage time and OU is pitiful. So while the defense has looked great, they haven’t really been tested. But Georgia’s defense has. While the Dawgs haven’t been consistent we know when they play their A game they’re dangerous. Against Texas they had 7 sacks and only gave up 29 yards on the ground. I know Ole Miss had a great performance against Arkansas but Dart won’t be able to do the same this week especially without Parrish to anchor the run game.
To be honest a lot of the stats favor Ole Miss but stats don’t decide everything. I haven’t seen Lane Kiffin win that big game yet and Georgia is 48-0 against teams not named Alabama. While Georgia hasn’t been the most dominant team on paper we know they get up when they need to and their ceiling is the best team in the country. I expect that team to show up on Saturday. 2 plays here. Dawgs and the Under.
UGA/OLE MISS UNDER 55 (-112)
UGA -2.5 (-112)
Michigan @ #8 Indiana
This may not be a big game to everyone but I definitely think it’s worth paying attention to. Michigan is a good team to test the water level of Indiana. The constant criticism of Indiana is who have they played? While we know Michigan isn’t a good team, they do have good athletes that “lightning in a bottle” teams like Indiana usually can’t contend with (for the record I don’t think the Hoosiers are lightning in a bottle. I back Cignetti all the way but that’s what people are referring to them as). If Indiana goes out and continues to dominate as they have been all season long against this Michigan team… the Buckeyes better watch out. With that being said no reason to get off the train. Hoosiers cover.
INDIANA -14.5 (-110)
While this is an elimination game, post season implications are not needed for these two programs to get up on a Saturday night. Bama enters this matchup on 2 weeks rest after dominating Mizzou 34-0. Meanwhile LSU enters this matchup on 2 weeks rest after losing a tough one 23-38 in College Station. Neither team can afford a loss here if they want a shot at the playoff and both teams face much milder schedules after this game. So it’s do or die for both DeBoer and Kelly this weekend.
Bama is a 2.5 point favorite AT DEATH VALLEY. Now that is saying a lot. But I think the books as well as the general public forget sometimes that Nick Saban is no longer leading this Crimson Tide regime anymore. Outside of the recent Mizzou win, Bama has struggled to put 4 qtrs together on both offense and defense in a game. Even against Georgia the defense had major slip ups in the 2nd half. If they want to win on the road here they’re going to need to play a complete game on both sides of the ball. The Bama pass defense is going to need to tighten up against Garrett Nussmeier who ranks #6 in the country in pass yards per game. The key for the offense will be establishing a run game and letting Milroe use his legs. LSU has struggled a bit against mobile QBs like LaNorris Sellers and Marcel Reed and I think Milroe is better than both of them. If Alabama does what it’s supposed to do, they’ll come in and win this game, but I don’t know if I can trust them to do that just yet.
On the other side, I’ve given you a ton of stats in the past about Brian Kelly at home and at night. The guy takes care of business in Death Valley when the lights are on. As I mentioned Nussmeier is fantastic at moving the ball through the air but they’re going to need to get Caden Durham moving on the ground. The run game for LSU has been improving but is not what I would call “solid” just yet. They’re going to need to stay ahead of the chains and be efficient on offense in this one. I think the key for LSU will be defense. I’m not worried about them scoring on the Alabama secondary but they absolutely can’t get run all over by Milroe and the RB room.
I had a really tough time picking this game. Ultimately, if Saban was the coach I think I’d be willing to lay with Bama. But under current circumstances and with the chaos we’ve seen this season, I’ll gladly catch 2.5 points with LSU in Death Valley at night with their season on the line.
LSU +2.5 (-105)
#9 BYU @ Utah
This is not the Holy War we were expecting when looking at the schedules back in the summer. I don’t think anyone saw this BYU team coming and they’ve been outstanding. They play solid, consistent football and don’t make mistakes. Meanwhile Utah, widely considered the conference favorite in the pre season, has dropped its last 4 games and has struggled immensely this season without a healthy Cam Rising. Utah is just looking to make a bowl game yes, but games like this are why CFB is the best. These two teams don’t need implications to turn this into a war.
BYU has been a statistical outlier all year long, constantly winning as an underdog. Meanwhile Utah can’t get their feet underneath them and have been landsliding down the L column on the schedule. But both teams are off a bye and ready for action. I can’t lie, I haven’t watched much of Utah especially after Zach Wilson’s little brother became the starter. I know while not a very good team, they’ll manage to get some points on the board here. Even though Utah has a stout defense, I find it hard to believe BYU scores less than 28 (they only have 1 time all season). In the last 6 matchups between these teams it has gone over the current number 4 times. Let’s root for points here and take the over.
BYU/UTAH OVER 40.5
OTHER PLAYS
MIAMI -11 @ GEORGIA TECH
Miami has done nothing but put up a million points all year long. While this Georgia Tech team is much improved they’ve embarrassed Miami in the past. I think Cristobal wants to right his wrongs and cover this one clean. The Canes are 3-1 ATS this season as away favorites. Told you last week they would cover the big one and I wasn’t even worried at half. No reason they can’t get it done against this Tech team.
MIAMI -11 (-108)
Oklahoma -3 @ MIZZOU
I told you we’re going to fade Mizzou and this is an easy spot. Drew Pine will most likely be the QB and I can’t see him doing anything against this OU defense. The Sooners are still showing fight and trying to improve and develop the guys who will be here next year. That’s a great sign out of a team with a disappointing season. They should get an easy one here.
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