College Football Week 13 Picks & Preview

We’re going to switch things up a bit this week. After back to back disgustingly bad weeks from me, I needed to get it together for the people. This week we’re going back to square one and starting with the fundamentals. No more vibes games, no more feeling bets, just pure College Football knowledge. I have spent this week deep diving these matchups, analyzing trends, and putting together the best playbook imaginable for Week 13 of the college football season. No big game breakdowns. Just pure picks and analysis.

ALL PLAYS

#9 Ole Miss @ Florida

Saturday 12pm EST ABC

SPREAD: -11.5

TOTAL: 55

Florida is a spunky underdog people can get behind with a fun QB like DJ Lagway at the helm. Lagway has been awesome on the deep ball when healthy and adds to the offense with his legs as well. While Florida just beat LSU, I think it said a lot more about LSU than Florida. That LSU team is sloppy and has seemed to be regressing rather than improving. I’m not taking anything away from Florida, we just have to reconsider these teams on more than brand name at this point in the season. Ole Miss is on a 3 game hot streak after their bye week and looking in playoff form after that win over Georgia in Oxford.

While Lagway is awesome for highlight plays on deep throws down field, they’re going to need consistency against this stout Ole Miss defense. Florida’s recipe for winning is getting the run game effective so Lagway can hit shots down the field efficiently. The run game is going to be challenged by this Ole Miss DL that ranks #1 in opp yards per rush. The Rebs have only given up 100+ yards on the ground 3x this year to South Carolina (who we know is legit), Oklahoma, and Arkansas in garbage time. These teams play similar style games and rely heavily on the big men upfront. In this matchup, I’ll have to roll with Ole Miss. The defense is not going to let Florida score. Against Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas A&M they failed to score more than 21 points. All of those defenses are of the same caliber if not worse than Ole Miss. Give me Lane and the Rebs with a path to the playoff.

OLE MISS -11.5 (-110)

#13 SMU @ Virginia

Saturday 12pm EST ESPN2

SPREAD: -9.5

TOTAL: 56

SMU has treated us well for buying in on them in the pre season. I mentioned in my team previews and when I gave out their win total over, that this team would be a dark horse for the conference. Now we thought it would be with Preston Stone but Kevin Jennings has been so good he warrants Saban to talk about him every Saturday on GameDay. If they continue to win out, they may just find themselves in the playoff. On the other hand this UVA team has a QB issue and is fighting for bowl eligibility. They beat Pitt after a bye week but were smothered by Notre Dame 35-14 last week. They’re a fun team but they won’t be able to hold up against an SMU team that’s undefeated in ACC play and has a clear playoff path ahead of them.

SMU grinds the ground game out well enough to open explosive pass plays for Jennings. While UVA has a middle of the pack run defense, they’re really weak in the passing game. I don’t see them being able to hold up against this SMU offense averaging just under 38 ppg. Rhett Lashlee and SMU are on a mission right now and UVA can’t decide who their starting QB should be. In SMU’s 9 wins, they’ve covered this number 6 times. I don’t see why they would have trouble against the Cavaliers.

SMU -9.5 (-112)

#4 Penn State -12 @ Minnesota

Saturday 3:30pm EST ESPN

SPREAD: -12

TOTAL: 45

Penn State is sitting in one of the comfiest chairs in the playoff circle. They won’t need to compete for a conference title and potentially suffer a loss in an extra game, and they face off against Minnesota and Maryland to end the season. If they can win these two they get plenty of rest before the playoff and are guaranteed a spot. Minnesota on the other hand suffered a rough loss against Rutgers last week but gets the opportunity to play spoiler against conference foes Penn State and Wisconsin in these final two weeks.

Penn State is an -12 point favorite and you look at that and say easy right? This is a playoff team facing a mid tier BIG10 team… well you’ve seen the chaos that has gone on this season. I’m not saying Minnesota is going to come out here and just ruin PSU’s playoff hopes but they’re going to do everything in their power to try. A key to look out for in this game is Minnesota’s offense. They thrive running the ball but will need to push it down field and test that Penn State secondary in this one. Hosmer has been good with ball security and the team has only turned the ball over twice in the last 5 games. Whereas Penn State has turned the ball over 6 times in the past 5 games. This Minnesota defense has been taking the ball away extremely well. In the last 5 games they’ve forced 11 turnovers!

If Minnesota can get a takeaway or two I really like their chances here. Their run defense has been solid not allowing more than 130 yards since the bye week and their pass defense excels at taking the ball away. This one will definitely be close in the first half that I could promise. We just need Minnesota to hang on long enough to cover the number. Penn State hasn’t been great ATS this year at 5-5 on the season. Let’s make it 5-6.

MINNESOTA +12 (-110)

#16 Colorado @ Kansas

Saturday 3:30pm EST FOX

SPREAD: -2.5

TOTAL: 59.5

Kansas has really come alive in the last 4-5 weeks of the season. They lost a tight one to K-State, knocked down Iowa State, and handed BYU its first loss last week. Leipold has the boys rolling. If you remember, my preseason write up on Kansas mentioned a lot of volatility. This team will go as far as their star QB takes them. He went through the first 5 games with a 5/7 TD/INT ratio and 2 TDs on the ground. Since then in the last 5 games he has a 7/2 TD/INT ratio and 4 TDs on the ground. This Kansas team struggled to get over the loss of OC Andy Kotelnicki early but has found its rhythm.

On the other hand Colorado is a WEAPON. I thought the Utah defense would hold up much better against them regardless of how long they were on the field. Utah has proven to still have one of the best defenses in the conference and Colorado had their way with them. This Colorado team is nearly averaging 40 ppg in the last 4. They’re also walking right toward an open door to the playoff as long as they continue to win out.

I absolutely love the over here, I do not care what the number is. Sit back, watch some of the best athletes in the country make some highlight plays and root for points. Over 59.5.

CU/KANSAS OVER 59.5 (-110)

#7 Alabama @ Oklahoma

Saturday 7:30pm EST ABC

SPREAD: -13.5

TOTAL: 46.5

Unfortunately, we have not talked a ton about Oklahoma this year but rightfully so. I mentioned they’d be in for a rude awakening when the season started and I think I was right. OU is 5-5 with not much left to play for except a bowl game that doesn’t mean much to OU fans. Meanwhile due to the tightness of the SEC standings, Alabama needs to continue to win out for a chance at the SEC championship and that playoff bye.

This play is pretty much as square as it gets and for good reason. OU’s offense has been atrocious. They rank in the 100’s for most statistical categories like PPG, Yards PG, Yards per Rush, and a few others. That’s the perfect type of offense Bama needs to see right now. This will be sort of a tune up game for Alabama where it’s more about themselves getting better than beating Oklahoma. On top of the poor offense production, they rank 132nd in sack % allowed. The Bama DL is going to feast on Jackson Arnold and force takeaways. OU has turned the ball over 18 times this year, 13 in the last 5 games. Alabama is not who you want to play when you’re having a turnover problem as their defense has 3+ takeaways in each of its last 5 games and 24 total on the year!

The Sooners do have a decent defense but unfortunately due to ineptitude on offense it’s extremely tough for them to consistently produce. On the other side, Bama beat LSU off the bye and had what is basically a scrimmage against Mercer last week. The Crimson Tide are rolling and DeBoer does not plan on stopping anytime soon. Make sure you get this one inside the number of course but I love Bama in this spot.

ALABAMA -13.5 (-110)

Vanderbilt @ LSU

Saturday 7:45pm EST SEC Network

SPREAD: -7.5

TOTAL: 53.5

Vanderbilt has treated us well all season. They’re not the same old Vanderbilt they’ve been in years past. Clark Lea and Diego Pavia are leading this team out of the dark ages. They’re not going to turn around and be a conference contender overnight, but their trajectory is certainly pointing upwards after this year. Meanwhile LSU has been in shambles and their season has fallen apart over the past month. The Tigers have lost their last 3 games to Texas A&M, Alabama, and Florida. Their playoff hopes are pretty much gone barring a miracle, so the question is do they get up off the mat to battle against this Commodore team.

LSU has proved all season long they struggle tremendously against running QBs. Marcel Reed, Jalen Milroe, and LaNorris Sellers all gave the Tiger defense fits. Diego Pavia is about to do the same. He’s been rushing for an average of 62 yards per game this season and has 3 TDs in their last 4 games. Vanderbilt is also coming off a bye week to face this deflated LSU team. Vandy as a dog has been great this year. They’re 7-3 ATS this season, 6-1 as an underdog with 4 outright wins! 3 of the 4 wins were as double digit dogs!!!!! Vegas simply doesn’t respect Vandy the way they should and we’ve taken advantage of that this season. Let’s do it again here. Vandy catching 7 and a hook, book it.

VANDERBILT +7.5 (-112)