2024 REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS

It's almost that time again as we browse our favorite sportsbooks searching the win totals for any edge we could find. Well luckily for you, I went ahead and did that already. Below are my favorite win totals for P4 teams that I will actually be putting my own money on. The odds listed are according to FanDuel at the time of this post and are subject to change.

Indiana Hoosiers

Win Total: 5.5

OVER (-138)

I am high on this Indiana team with Curt Cignetti. Not high enough to win the conference but more than confident in this over. Cignetti comes over from JMU where we was very successful with an over 52-9 record at JMU (19-4 in last 2 years). Along with his great offensive mind, he brings over quite a few JMU players who seem to be plug and play. 2x All MAC QB Kurtis Rourke from Ohio University takes over at QB along with some serious transfers weapons including Myles Price. The Indiana offense is going to be totally revamped this year. They should open up 4-0 with 3 non P4 home games and a trip to UCLA (who could end up last in conference). The only sure losses I see on the schedule are Michigan and Ohio State. That means they will need to win 4 of the following 6 games...

Home vs Maryland

at Northwestern

Home vs Nebraska (this will be tough)

Home vs Washington

at Michigan State

Home vs Purdue

Out of those 6 games, 4 are home including the toughest one against Nebraska. I'm high on the Hoosiers, bang the over.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Win Total: 7.5

OVER (-120)

Much like Texas, we often here Nebraska is back this year. With Matt Rhule at the helm they actually might be. Rhule has demonstrated his ability to win (in college) and build up a program quickly in his time at Temple and Baylor. Now he's at Nebraska, a sleeping giant in the CFB realm, with a lot more resources and even better talent. Nebraska the past few years has been known for losing one possession games and turning the ball over a ton, they're 8-30 in one possession games since 2018. Rhule is 1-14 in these games as a year 1 HC but is 12-11 in year 2. Nebraska also lands ESPN's #1 ranked pocket passer out of HS in Dylan Raiola. Raiola, the Mahomes cosplayer, is an elite talent who will completely turn this offense around. Raiola will of course go through growing pains, but I'm fully bought on what he can do. With a few WR transfers and a seriously improved OL this Nebraska offense will be dangerous. On the other side of the ball, they have one of the top DLs in the country and an experienced defense. While the offense is fun to talk about, this stout defense will be the difference maker for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska has a real chance being 7-0 (or 6-1 as Rutgers is not an auto win in my book) when they visit Ohio State. They'll only have to win 1 of the following games down the stretch to hit...

Home vs UCLA (as I said may be worst team in conference)

at USC

Home vs Wisconsin

at Iowa (most likely a loss.. but we'll see)

I think out of those last 4, UCLA will be a guaranteed win and Wisconsin is a coin flip. I'll take those odds, give me the over!

UCLA

Win Total: 4.5

UNDER (+118)

This UCLA team has entered full rebuild mode. With the departure of Chip Kelly and both coordinators, they'll be starting form the ground up. New HC DeShaun Foster made some not so great headlines in BIG10 media days, but that doesn't factor in to my play here. Not a huge fan of the QBs on the roster and I think overall the offense will take a serious step back, even with former Chiefs OC Bienemy driving the offense. The defense only returns 5 starters and loses a lot of depth. With conference realignment, their schedule will take a step up in difficulty and I have an extremely hard time seeing them produce in year 1 of this new regime. They play a very rough schedule running into LSU, Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa, and of course USC. As far as winnable games on the schedule, I only see the following...

at Hawaii (week 1)

Home vs Minnesota (coin flip for me)

at Washington (Washington is very volatile)

at Home vs Fresno State

I only see 4 winnable games on the schedule this year and will stick to my under, confidently.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Win Total: 6.5

OVER (+100)

The Schiano man is making waves in Piscataway NJ. Rutgers has been developing it's players well and is showing strong signs of improvement in the recruiting field. Minnesota QB transfer Kaliakmanis reunites with OC Kirk Ciarrocca and Kyle Monangai is a serious threat at RB. The OL is very experienced and a few transfers will help out in the WR room. This offense should be much more productive than previous years. The Dark Side defense has three 5th years and a 6th year senior in the front 7!! On top of all the experience, they have the easiest BIG10 schedule you could ask for avoiding Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, and Iowa! The schedule is the key here. I am giving Rutgers 8 wins off the bat, the schedule is as follows...

Home vs Howard (Win)

Home vs Akron (Win)

at VA Tech

Home vs Washington (Win)

at Nebraska

Home vs Wisconsin

Home vs UCLA (Win)

at USC

Home vs Minnesota (Win)

at Maryland (Win)

Home vs Illinois (Win)

at Michigan State (Win)

6.5? Yeah let's smash the over.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Win Total: 8.5

OVER (+122)

I may be a touch biased here, but I believe in Mike Gundy with everything I have. Not only do I believe in Gundy, but I really really like Ollie Gordon. The biggest question for me is Bowman the QB, but I believe with an experience HC like Gundy, they'll be able to limit the mistakes he can make. The Pokes return a strong WR unit and the entire OL that combines for 214 starts. They also return 9 starters on what will be an improved defense. After winning 10 games last year and returning some serious talent, I see no reason why they can't do it again. The toughest games on their schedule will be Utah, K State, and WVU (with two being home). I have them marked as wins against SDSU, Arkansas, Tulsa, BYU, Baylor, ASU, TCU, Tex Tech, and Colorado (totaling 9 wins). If they slip up one of these weeks, they'll have to steal 1 of the 3 tough games we mentioned earlier, which is not out of the question. I saw a plus sign next to the OVER and I couldn't resist this one.

SMU Mustangs

Win Total: 8.5

OVER (+104)

This SMU team is going to surprise a lot of casuals this year. Rhett Lashlee has been building something and after last years 11 win season they're ready to step up to the ACC. Preston Stone is a huge reason to like this team. He threw for 3,197 (60%, 28-6, 3rd Tm

AAC) but was injured in week 12. Stone has serious arm talent and can use his legs to extend plays when needed. Along with Stone they return pretty much all of the RBs and WRs and beef up the OL with a few P4 transfers. The biggest question for them is defense, but I feel they have enough firepower and control on offense to win tough games. I like SMU to win in the following games...

at Nevada

Home vs Houston Christian

Home vs BYU

at Stanford

at Duke

Home vs Pitt

Home vs Boston College

at Virginia

Home vs Cal

That's 9 wins right there. They also face off against TCU, FSU, and Louisville. I have no doubt they could beat TCU at home and it's a tight one against Louisville. The only auto loss they mark them down for is FSU. I'm not saying SMU is going to come in take over the ACC but with the current roster they have a serious window to play for an ACC title.

Virginia Tech Hokies

Win Total: 8.5

OVER (+124)

This is another play that I like a lot because it has a plus sign next to it. VA Tech is another serious dark horse to compete for an ACC title this year. QB Kyron Drones threw for over 2K with a 17-3 TD/INT and rushed for 800+ last season. Drones is a real playmaker at QB and almost all of his weapons on offense return including the entire OL unit. Brent Pry loves this defense that returns 10 starters including a DB unit with some NFL talent. The Hokies avoid FSU, SMU, Louisville and NC State! The schedule is a big reason I like this play. I have them down as wins or should win in the following games...

at Vandy

Home vs Marshall

at ODU

at Stanford

Home vs Boston College

Home vs Georgia Tech (tech is sneaky this year though)

at Syracuse

at Duke

Home vs Virginia

Those wins would put you at 9 to cash the bet. However, they do also faceoff against Rutgers (home), Miami (away), and Clemson (home). If they win against Rutgers or Miami in weeks 4 or 5, I just love this play that much more.

Leans

These are not official plays but there are some other interesting win totals out there that I thought I'd mention.

Auburn Tigers

Win Total: 7.5

OVER (+124)

Again this is just a lean and not a lock. I like the RB Hunter and Freeze brought in some serious WR recruits. True Freshman Cam Coleman will make an instant impact for Auburn this year, by all accounts he'll be the WR1. The OL returns 3 but has 87 career starts, if they continue to improve they'll protect whoever is playing QB. The defense is a veteran unit that will fare well even in conference play. The biggest question for me here is the QB situation. Payton Thorne returns at QB and is battling for the spot as Freeze said the job was up for grabs. That's not a great sign considering Thorne is a senior. Auburn does have to face Oklahoma, Georgia, Mizzou, Texas A&M and Alabama, making a tough schedule. But they'll play some winnable games against Alabama A&M, Cal, New Mexico, Arkansas, Kentucky, Vandy and UL Monroe. I lean over but do with that as you will.

Houston Cougars

Win Total: 3.5

UNDER (+116)

Houston is another team amidst a rebuild. Willie Fritz takes over after Dana Holgerson's departure. Fritz is a great offensive coach and will help improve this team but there may just be too many holes for him to plug in year 1. The WR room is a question mark with some unproven talent but Donovan Smith does return at QB. The OL loses 4 starters and will need the transfers to get on the same page right away if they want to improve the run game. The defense loses a ton and the schedule is not a cake walk. As for winnable games on the schedule, I see 4 MAX.

Home vs UNLV

Home vs Rice

at Cincinnati (I think they lose this)

at BYU

Once again this is a lean, so if I had to pick it, I'd play the under. I also like the plus sign there.

Baylor Bears

Win Total: 5.5

OVER (-105)

A lot of this lean is based on Dave Aranda calling the plays on defense and DeQuann Finn transferring in from Toledo. Finn is a dynamic playmaker who had a 22-9 TD/INT last year. IF you watch MAC football, you know him. The WRs and RBs return for the most part. The OL has 97 career starts and gains some experience after playing some young guys last year. Aranda is back to calling plays and we've heard other coaches take note. There's a lot of respect for Dave Aranda's play calling ability on defense. They also return 9 starters for what should be an improved defense. They only need 6 wins to cash this ticket. I have wins for the following Tarleton State, Air Force, BYU, and Houston. They'll need to get 2 more wins from the following games...

at Colorado

at Texas Tech

Home vs TCU

at WVU

Home vs Kansas

I don't feel strongly about them getting 2 wins there. However, Kansas is very dependent on the health of Jaylon Daniels and could be a different team in November. Their best bet is to beat Colorado and Texas Tech. If Finn shows up and Aranda's play calling makes a difference, I think they could cash the over here.